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Pollsters were obviously nervous following their two big failures to predict Conservative victories, in 1992 and last year.
We observe a good predictive value of MELD score measured at baseline (ICU admission), even in the context of multi-organ failures, to predict mid-term mortality.
Furthermore, there is always a trade-off between the rates of false alarms and failures to predict so that the best scalar value may depend on the goal of the forecast (Molchan 1990).
It was a powerful reminder that spectacular historical failures to predict the economic future have always been an essential part of the profession's history, often buoyed by the belief that this bubble is not a bubble, and the notion that "this time is different" (Reinhart and Rogoff 2011).
So the intelligence community is certainly not alone its failures to predict the most vital aspects of our future.
Facebook's constant churn of content moderation-related problems come in many different flavors: There are failures of policy, failures of messaging, and failures to predict the darkest impulses of of human nature.
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Recent history is replete with examples of such failures--failures to predict as well as predictions that turned out to be incorrect, often egregiously so.
Within this framework the MMN would result from a failure to predict bottom-up input and consequently to suppress prediction error [ 15- 17].
Within this framework the MMN would result from a failure to predict bottom-up input and consequently to suppress prediction error (Friston, 2005; Baldeweg, 2006; Garrido et al., 2007).
In this view, the MMN represents a failure to predict bottom-up input and consequently a failure to suppress prediction error.
Even the Queen of England has demanded that economists explain their failure to predict the crisis.
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