As expected, the average error rates underestimate uncertainty except at the extremes of consensus, with u ¯ 1 clearly inferior to the composite beta binomial estimate for positive predictions.
Like every other aspect of the climate change debate (from newspaper articles to perceptions of extreme weather), communicating the consensus is an unavoidably politicised challenge.
Yet the "loss and damage" agreement, which Australia agreed to by consensus, implies extreme weather events are associated with climate change.
On one extreme would be our consensus favorite, the Egly-Ouriet Brut Tradition, which we gave three and a half stars.
At the other extreme, there is broad consensus that the right of publicity requires companies to obtain permission before they say a celebrity has endorsed their products.
David K. Harp, 51, of Fort Smith, said that while stripping Mr. Clinton of his license "seems extreme to me, the consensus I hear is that another lawyer would have been disbarred a long time ago".
Sandy was not an isolated incident: only last year, Hurricane Irene caused nearly sixteen billion dollars in damage, and there is a growing consensus that extreme weather events are becoming more common and more damaging.
The global consensus against extreme trade imbalances provides the opportunity for a new strategy in the global economy that will expand but balance our trade, and make things in America once more.
The 300-page report cited worsening drought conditions in California and throughout the West that may be more than their ecosystems can handle: "There is growing consensus that extreme precipitation events will increase in frequency, and warmer temperatures will exacerbate the impacts of drought on forests and rangelands in the future".
Although there is general consensus that extreme poverty globally has fallen in recent decades [ 95, 96], its attribution to trade liberalization remains weak [ 97] and disproportionate to the quadrupling in global economic product over the same time period.
