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We used matrix population models to determine the independent and interactive effects of drought and management of woody canopy cover on A. bibullatus' probability of extinction, time to extinction and future population size.
However, for small populations, our results show that linked selection can increase the mean extinction time to an extent that is biologically relevant, while, at the same time, not affecting the invasion probability much.
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Thus extinction times increased quasi-exponentially with decreasing amplitude and increasing frequency of oscillation for nonpremixed flames but were a nonmonotonic function of frequency in premixed flames, with the longest extinction time corresponding to higher frequencies as the flame tended to stoichiometric.
This argument is based on the increase of the mean extinction time relative to unlinked selection.
If α>1, the mean number of mutations and thus the likelihood of a successful resistance mutation by extinction time tends to 0. In the current work, we are interested in studying the dynamics of recurrent tumors after the development of resistance; therefore, we restrict ourselves to the parameter regime α<1.
Figure 6 describes the parameter space that corresponds to values of U and s for which the probability of obtaining data similar to the experiment (20 extinctions, mean time to extinction between 6.5 and 10.5, and variance between 12 and 20) is higher than 0.05.
The parameter values that are most plausible yield extinction times close to the estimated age of common ancestry with related species (~18 Myr).
(i) Critical predictions of extinction time help biologists to look for the key data that is also needed for more realistic quantifications of the effects of mutation accumulation.
With an optimum moving at a slow or moderate pace, the predator's extinction time increases due to the predator-prey interaction (versus the control case in which all predator individuals survive without being required to catch prey).
The extinction phase (i.e., phase 3 in Lynch and colleagues papers) is generally assumed much shorter than the accumulation phase in theoretical genetic models, and the extinction time is assumed equal to the duration of the accumulation phase (i.e., the time necessary to obtain a deterministically decreasing population).
Since extinction time is very sensitive to changes in the mutation rate, it is conceivable that the anthropogenic release of mutagenic substances could lead to such a strong increase in mutation rate that extinction times are predicted to be in time frames that are frequently considered by conservation biologists.
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