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Researchers arrived at that figure by comparing the estimated thicknesses and extents of ice seen in a 1970 aerial survey with those measured by an airborne laser altimeter in 2007 and 2008.
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Satellite images have revealed that the extent of ice coverage has significantly shrunk in recent years.
The extent of ice, although a useful indicator of global temperatures, is also strongly influenced by wind and ocean currents, which alter how densely the ice is packed.
NSIDC said this year's minimum extent of ice was larger than the extraordinary low seen in 2012: "Arctic sea ice extent as of September 16, 2013 was 5.10 million square kilometers (2.00 million square miles).
The extent of ice cover is a critical indicator of the changes taking place in the Arctic – but the shrinking of the polar ice carries sweeping consequences for lower latitudes as well.
Where most studies of Arctic sea ice track over-all declines in the extent of ice coverage, the Nature Climate Change paper provides a newly detailed picture of the open water left behind — a forecast that is particularly useful to humans and other species now adapting to a warming Arctic.
The development and extent of ice have both ecological and socio-economic implications.
The rates and geographic extent of ice loss are "very surprising," says radar altimetry expert Curt Davis of the University of Missouri, Kansas City.
Predicting the temperature and extent of ice freezing in aqueous solutions is crucial for areas as diverse as cryobiology, the prediction of climate and materials design.
Furthermore, the new approach provides evidence for the extent of ice coverage during the late Wisconsinan, which is significant if no erratics are available for exposure dating.
Other areas around Earth (at least where ice has been warm-based) also may exhibit a non-random trend of decreasing extent of ice with time, ultimately because of glacial erosion in the Quaternary Period.
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