"Michael is now explicitly forecast to become a category 4 hurricane before landfall occurs," the Hurricane Center said Tuesday night.
Most VALs do not explicitly forecast volcanic activity but, in many instances they play an important role in informing decisions: defining exclusion zones and issuing evacuation alerts.
Some systems thinking methods and tools, such as scenario planning, can also be used to explicitly forecast future events.
Thus, the integration of time with space, as time space, was recognized explicitly in attempts to forecast landscape changes through models of time space diffusion and through simulation of complex human processes, including land use succession and migration behavior, and the development of settlement and transportation systems.
The Switching forecast model is explicitly designed to estimate the forecasting problem faced by the risk manager who does not rely on a specific Value-at-Risk (VaR) model and allows for the VaR model to change over time.
We call it the Bessemer Optimal Budget (the budget), and it involves explicitly recognizing probabilities in budgeting and forecasting.
Recently Elderd et al [8], using Bayesian methods, demonstrated the importance of explicitly quantifying such underlying uncertainty when forecasting the expected efficacy of trace versus mass vaccination policies.
Our decomposition is explicitly prospective, with the practical goal of forecasting the variance contributed by each class in an idealized, future diallel of the same founders.
First, it is more explicitly designed with forecasting in mind (rather than retrospective evaluation of what happened).
These improved analyses are used to initialize GEOS-5 forecasts, explicitly accounting for aerosol direct radiative effects and their impact on the atmospheric dynamics.
We show that announcements of upcoming events tend to localize within a small geographic region, allowing us to forecast event locations which are not explicitly mentioned in text.
