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This result is a 0.22% expected upside payout.
The flip side of this analysis is to determine what the median losing 77.1% of active funds would have needed to lose by to match the 0.22% expected upside payout.
Therefore, expect upside surprises over the next two years.
First, consensus on the former is low, so expect upside data to surprise and a failure to be status quo on a dead mechanism of action.
The fact that traders were short natural gas implied volatility going into this winter season suggests that they assumed that gas prices indeed did not have much room to fall (having traded around only $2.75/MMBtu as recently as September), but they also expected that upside price moves would be more modest and paced.
Monk was one of the architects of the 40s bebop movement, but so much his own man that critics wrangled over whether he counted as a bopper or not - his piano style was a dismantled and dissonant version of early stride piano, his feel was bluesy and soulful; his harmonic sense seemed designed to turn expected resolutions upside down, and he disliked bop's seamless legato runs.
The new target represents an expected 14% upside to the stock's Tuesday closing price of $43.01.
The firm upgraded HAL to "Outperform" from "Perform" with a $42 price target, which represents an expected 32% upside to the stock's Friday closing price of $31.86.
Although we do not expect 16% upside over the next 12 months, at our target price the shares would deliver a 13.1% return.
"We expect some upside surprises to China's growth in the coming months," said Qu Hongbin, an HSBC economist, noting that factory activity had picked up as companies rebuilt their stocks amid recent steps taken by the Chinese authorities to boost activity.
Not that Corcoran is expecting any upside surprises.
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