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Red colors correspond to larger magnitudes for the expected earthquakes.
The Tohoku-Oki earthquake is by far larger than expected earthquakes.
There are also several algorithms to estimate the background rate and b-value distribution that can also alter significantly the number of expected earthquakes.
Following the 2004 Sumatra Andaman earthquake, previous studies had expected earthquakes to be triggered on the GSF (Nalbant et al. 2005; McCloskey et al. 2005; Cattin et al. 2009).
The likely source regions of expected earthquakes are identified as three regions (two ellipses and a rectangle) enclosed by thin dotted curves in Fig. 1(a) (the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion HERPP), 2005).
With regard to the "expected" earthquakes, Matsuzawa et al. (2004) earlier proposed that quasi-static slip, namely large afterslip of large earthquakes, partly compensates slip deficits on non-asperity regions with expansion of aftershock activity, and can trigger even larger earthquakes.
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The maximum expected earthquake magnitude is an important parameter in seismic hazard and risk analysis because of its strong influence on ground motion.
Following the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake, it was found that these welded moment connections could not withstand expected earthquake distortions, and in fact fractured well below the intended design levels.
In addition, the structural safety assessment of a masonry bridge was investigated using 3D Finite Element Modeling (FEM) under the designed train and expected earthquake loads, in both dry and partly immersed conditions.
A limit equilibrium sensitivity analysis of the unstable rock block was performed as a function of the water condition of the reservoir, expected earthquake generated peak horizontal ground acceleration coefficient and rock anchor inclination angle.
The first of the four steps is identifying earthquake sources to determine distances between site and hypocenter and to characterize these to clarify any expected earthquake.
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