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Either way, expectations questions have the potential to be useful well beyond politics.
The study's authors emphasized that expectations questions could produce useful results even with unrepresentative samples.
Although expectations questions have not received much attention lately, Mr. Rothschild has discovered that they have a long history.
Perhaps the biggest limitation of the study is that polling companies have asked expectations questions much less often than other kinds of questions, Mr. Newport added.
Frank Newport, editor in chief of Gallup, said he was intrigued enough by the paper to have talked with the authors about how to include expectations questions in more polls.
Mr. Wolfers disagreed, saying he thought that voters' predictions were based mostly on friends, yard signs and other private information, given that responses to the expectations questions varied so much.
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And an expectations question allows people to take into account speeches, debates and news media reports.
First, the question captures the state of public opinion today, while the expectations question effectively asks you where you think public opinion is going.
Based on your research and the current polls, what does the expectations question suggest is the most likely outcome on Tuesday?
The correlation of this precise information ratio with not having answered the house price expectations question is 0.10 0.17 with a t-ratio of 8.2 in a simple regression).
These are "rookie" errors, but more senior prospects make them, too, like the prospect for a director of research position who doesn't remember the best way to answer a salary expectations question, or the vice president-level business developer who walks away from an interview thinking he's done with the process.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com