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The beauty of an expectations poll, he and Mr. Wolfers said, is that it has the effect of turbocharging a poll's sample.
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So why did the expectations polls move less sharply than intentions polls?
In the article, I discussed only briefly the expectations polls about the 2012 race, and some of the Twitter feedback was eager for more.
Yesterday the source for those expectations, polls before the primary, were criticized for missing a late surge in popularity for Mr. Edwards, prompting a contentious debate within the news media over whether news outlets have been over-reliant on such polls.
Good Polls for Mitt Romney Polls in Line With Expectations Good Polls for President Obama So Wednesday was not a knockout polling day for either of the candidates.
Given expectations, our poll is a good result for Republicans.
Given expectations, our poll is a good result for Democrats.
The ZEW index of economic expectations, a poll of 277 financial market analysts conducted by the Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim, Germany, fell to minus 4.3 points from plus 14 points in August, as pessimists outnumbered optimists.
However, Time writer Karen Tumulty noted that while "thus far, Sestak has failed to meet expectations", the poll also indicated some weaknesses for Specter.
But now we know what setting expectations without polling looks like.
For journalists and pundits there is something exciting about political developments that defy expectations and polls.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com