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At this overall damping level, results clearly demonstrate that, for the probability levels and durations considered, bandwidth is only important for the linearly damped model for the beam model with non-linear damping, bandwidth can be ignored, allowing accurate extreme exceedance predictions by using only the stationary FPK equation.
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The result is a flexible model for the mean, the variance, exceedance probabilities, prediction intervals, etc. from the specified conditional distribution.
Predictable predictions?
The methods and results presented here may be useful to those investigating the potential for offshore wind energy development using stochastic process theory to study wind speed or power production since stationary stochastic models provide simpler and more accessible predictions of quantities such as probabilities of exceedance of threshold values, upcrossing rates, and residence times.
Ground motion descriptors such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) were calculated from ground motion prediction equations (or attenuation relationships), and the mean rate of exceedance of a specified ground motion amplitude, which is the hazard, was determined.
Exposure to drinking water exceeding 25 mg/L NO3 may result from incidental exceedance in public supplies or structural exceedance in small local facilities or private wells.
Improved closure predictions resulted when both extreme waves (as represented by the 12 hour exceedance significant wave height over a given time interval), and more typical storm waves (as represented by the 99% significant wave height) were jointly considered.
In contrast, the multinomial model showed good overall accuracy (79% correct classifications), made the correct predictions 90% of the time when both arsenic and nitrate MCL exceedances were observed, and was a good fit for wells located in agricultural areas.
In this study, the accuracy and effectiveness of the global maxima method, translation process method and average conditional exceedance rate (ACER) method in evaluating extreme response distribution are examined through comparisons with the predictions from controlled Monte Carlo simulation (MCS).
Based on the numerical results obtained, a more accurate prediction method has been proposed for extrapolating determining the values of attenuation at different exceedance probability %p from the measured attenuation at 0.01% of the time.
A reliable set of tools for prediction of low-exceedance design waves is of high importance when designing coastal protection structures.
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