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First, we find little evidence of future performance difference (gross or net of fees) associated to any particular compensation arrangement (including performance-based pay) after controlling for a comprehensive list of advisor, fund, and portfolio manager variables used in the determinant analysis.
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There's ample evidence that relying on past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
I've examined systematic data on coaching performance fairly extensively over the years, and there is little evidence that a coach's ancestry – the coaching "tree" from which he descends – gives any indication of future performance.
Is past performance really an indicator of future performance?
But those numbers are weak indicators of future performance.
Then they reported it, as if past performance were indicative of future performance.
"The best indicator of future performance, of leadership, is past performance," he said.
Past performance is only a weak indicator of future performance.
Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
It is a very weak indicator of future performance.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com