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The real purpose of franc devaluation is to shield the Swiss banks from euro devaluation.
"The E.C.B. needs to make it clear that the euro devaluation is over," said Mr. Hufner of Hypovereinsbank.
To be sure, a big euro devaluation would be good for some of the countries that have the most serious problems.
And poor old Europe, which thought it could offset the impact of fiscal austerity with Euro devaluation, has seen the Euro soar instead, with Goldman Sachs predicting a further 4.7% fall of the dollar this year and a 4% rise in the value of the Euro.
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Among them are changes that hand recession-hit Spain a tool for survival inside the euro: internal devaluation.
Moreover, most private borrowing is in euros, so devaluation would mean beggary for many.
Europe would not be slowly recovering from a long recession: it would be languishing in depression, while countries with no euro mounted competitive devaluation after competitive devaluation in a system of floating exchange rates – trying to export unemployment to each other.
For the moment, Greek officials are adamant that neither a default nor a euro exit and devaluation is in the cards.
Clearly, Spain needs to become more competitive; maybe the labor market reforms it's trying will do the trick, though I tend to be skeptical; otherwise it's about gradual relative deflation — or euro exit and devaluation.
To be sure, if Germany were to leave the common currency, the road back to competitiveness would be easier for the southern countries, since the rump euro would undergo devaluation; but the crisis countries' fundamental problem would remain as long as the other competitive countries remain in the eurozone.
There would be a huge capital flight out of peripheral countries into Germany, as savers tried to protect their euros from potential devaluation.
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