Exact(1)
"I think people will be very interested in taking a close look" at details of the simulations that yielded unusually high estimates of warming to ensure the results are credible, says Isaac Held, a climate scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Princeton, New Jersey.
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The IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report, published in 2007, gave estimates for warming of between 1.8C and 4C under different scenarios during the 21st Century.
The latest results from MIT's Integrated Global Systems Model give us a median estimate of 5.2C of warming by 2100 if we do nothing to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions.
To estimate the influence of warming the well known TVO temperature sensors [Proceedings of the ICEC17 (1998) 699, Cryogenics 41 (2001) 213, Advances in Cryogenic Engineering 45B (2000 18177, Proceedings of the ICEC18 (2000) 627] up to 425 K on their calibration curve, a series of experiments have been carried out.
Gleckler countered that Trenberth missed the point of the paper, which wasn't aimed at providing new estimates of ocean warming.
The range of values of the figure reflects the range of estimates for the amount of warming expected by 2100.
He acknowledges the enduringly wide range of estimates of the extent of warming from the greenhouse buildup but stresses that the system is already set up for centuries of warming, with further delay simply adding to the task of successive generations.
Related to this fact is that if the range of estimates increases, even if it is by a lowering of the lower bound, that seemingly good news may in fact be bad news: When the IPCC lowered its lower estimate of the range of warming from 2°C to 1.5°C, intuitively this appeared to signal that things may not be so bad after all.
That is probably true, but it misses one major point: the models keep misbehaving.There is not yet, for instance, a model that can "predict" the past with precision most models estimate that the amount of warming should be about twice as large as has actually occurred.
However, he adds, the team's new study "is a highly idealized experiment," so the results are probably more accurate in terms of capturing the overall pattern of changes than they are at estimating the precise amount of warming or cooling in a particular locale.
An estimate of the likelihood of warming due to a doubling of greenhouse gas concentrations (Source: Wagner & Weitzman "Climate Shock" (via NPR)).
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