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12Available estimates of Soviet casualties vary widely.
Mr. Rumsfeld, a leading cold warrior, argued that the C.I.A.'s estimates of Soviet military spending were too low, a criticism that turned out to be true.
In 1991 he was on a panel of nongovernmental experts on the Soviet economy created by the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence to review the C.I.A.'s estimates of Soviet economic growth and defense expenditures from 1970 to 1991.
Dr. Berliner agreed with the panel's conclusions that the C.I.A.'s estimates of major Soviet economic statistics were not worse than those produced by independent scholars but that the agency's estimates of Soviet defense expenditures suffered from lack of contact with outside experts on that subject.
Across the board, CIA estimates of Soviet strengths, economic and military, turned out to be abysmally off.
The Team B report 'discovered' a sizable error in previous NIE/CIA estimates of Soviet military outlays: the USSR was said to be spending 13, not 8, percent of its GNP on arms.
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"Our estimate of Soviet policy became less flexible than Soviet policy per se," Mr. Kent said in lecture notes.
To fit the policy needs of the Nixon White House in 1969, Helms doctored a C.I.A. estimate of Soviet nuclear forces.
An article in Arts & Ideas on Feb. 21 about the emergence of information from Soviet archives about the Eastern Front in World War II misstated the estimate of Soviet deaths in the war.
Correction: March 8 , 2004 Monday An article in Arts & Ideas on Feb. 21 about the emergence of information from Soviet archives about the Eastern Front in World War II misstated the estimate of Soviet deaths in the war.
Over the next few months, a series of intelligence reviews resulted in ever increasing estimates of the Soviet missile force.
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