The assumption tends to be that this failure is the result of incompetent implementation rather than whether the cost estimate was wrong in the first place.
Maybe but we shouldn't have excessive faith in its wisdom; after all, by cutting its forecast, it admits its previous estimate was wrong.
Examined in retrospect the estimate was wrong in every finding; the nothing the administration did in response to terrorist warnings before 9/11 matched the nothing that was found on the ground in Iraq.
One possible explanation for this might be that, in comparison to judicial reports, BAG and originating banks have to bear the consequences themselves if their estimate is wrong, and therefore make a more conservative estimate.
We are introduced to the economics of warfare when the boatman explains that his original estimate was wrong and in fact we are paying for the fuel for him to return to Akobo.
This estimate proved wrong, as Stalin transferred over 18 divisions, 1,700 tanks, and over 1,500 aircraft from Siberia and the Far East, relying on intelligence from his spy, Richard Sorge, which indicated that Japan deep in preparation for the Pearl Harbor attack would not attack the Soviet Union.
For instance in long-branch attraction types of scenarios where gene trees can not be consistently estimated from molecular sequences, MP-EST may consistently estimate a wrong species tree due to the bias in the gene tree reconstruction.
BiSSE may mistakenly estimate the wrong parameter (or combination of parameters) to be the cause of taxonomic excess in situations where high tip ratio bias is observed, and increased tree size does not alleviate this issue.
What lucky Treasury Department employee gets the job of estimating all of these variables, and then facing the consequences if those estimates are wrong?
