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The official estimate of output growth in Q3 was 0.4%, substantially below the rate expected by the committee in August.
The old GDP figures were based on an estimate of output.
The BEA's first estimate of output in the fourth quarter of 2008, published in January of 2009, showed a contraction of 3.8%, later revised to a 6.8% drop.
The cartel raised the forecast for demand for its oil this year slightly, to 29.2m barrels a day, and lowered its estimate of output from non-OPEC producers, as cheap oil forces American and European oil companies to curtail their capital spending.
where is the estimate of output noise cross-corre-lation, and the discount factor to preventovercompensation.
The estimate of output bias (4) can be rewritten as (15).
Similar(52)
How Accurate are Real-Time Estimates of Output Trends and Gaps?
For instance, the old GDP figures were based solely on estimates of output.
True, the OECD and IMF estimates of output gap are surprisingly modest, given the economy's lack of real growth since 1991.
Saudi shipments fell to about 7 million barrels a day, from 7.39 million, according to International Energy Agency estimates of output and domestic demand.
Tracking estimates of output for the April-June period are now bumping around the 1% to 1.5% range.
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