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To our knowledge, this is the first report of using molecular clock modeling in conjunction with symptom data to estimate date of HIV acquisition.
For example interviewers used national and local events to estimate date of onset of symptoms.
We used length of gestation and birth date to estimate date of conception.
Similar(57)
BEAST estimates of single variant transmissions (±95% CI) overlapped with estimated-date-of-infection based on symptoms.
Estimated-date-of-infection was defined as a function of the likelihood of the HIV source and timing of sexual contact with the suspected source.
Estimated-dates-of-infection based on symptoms versus BEAST had a positive correlation with R2 = 0.54 for all 15 participants (Figure 2).
Using SGA to estimate infection dates based on number of viral generations, BEAST results correlated well with estimated-date-of-infection per symptom report in subjects with single variant transmissions.
Recent publications highlight their use to model inter-continental HIV-1 spread,[27] subtype evolution,[28] and evolution during AHI.[26] We compared estimated-date-of-infection from SGA-derived sequences using BEAST to estimated-date-of-infection based on symptom onset, the latter defined as 14 days prior to the first ARS symptom (Table 2).
Analyzing 14 participants with estimated-dates-of-infection within 4 weeks of symptom onset increased the correlation coefficient (R2 = 0.72), suggesting BEAST estimates are most accurate when combined with more recent clinical data, possibly due to recall bias.
Modern molecular studies, which use DNA to estimate dates of evolution, also put the emergence of placentals at about 160 million years ago.
The uncertainty arises because Indigenous Australians often estimate dates of birth by comparison with other events, especially for those born before contact with European Australians.
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CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com