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Vulcanian eruption: i Soufriere Hills Volcano, 26 September 1997.
JMA issued Ash Fall Forecasts when a large eruption (i.e., one with an ash plume height of over 3,000 m above the crater) occurs.
We cannot predict what eruption (i.e. magnitude, plume height) will next take place from any particular volcano, and when an eruption starts we often have very limited information.
The magnitudes of these subtle deformations (i.e., ~ 1 × 10−9) are two orders of magnitude smaller than the strain changes observed during each sub-Plinian eruption (i.e., ~ 100 × 10−9).
Figure 6 a b show probability maps compiled for an accumulation of 10 kg m−2 (i.e. critical threshold for crops) for the Long Lasting Eruption Range Scenario and the Long Lasting Fixed Date Scenarios of Cordón Caulle based on the climatic phase of the 2011 eruption (i.e. Unit 1 in Bonadonna et al. 2015; Pistolesi et al. 2015, Table 2).
One Eruption Scenarios (OES), designed to assess the probability of accumulation of a critical tephra accumulation based on the statistical distribution of wind conditions and a deterministically defined eruption (i.e. stochastic sampling of one wind profile at each run while ESPs remain constant).
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LaMEVE contains 1927 eruptions, i.e., a mean of 4 eruptions per QEAR volcano.
Since the 1923 eruption of the Ohachi volcano, all other eruptions (i.e., the 1959, 1962, 1991, 2010, and 2011 eruptions) occurred at Shinmoe-dake volcano, with the 2011 eruptions being the largest on record over the past 290 years (i.e., since a similar-scale eruption in 1717).
Figure 6(a) shows strain rates together with periods with strain rates greater than the rates associated with the subtle changes that precede sub-Plinian eruptions (i.e., 0.6 × 10−9 h−10−9
This was attributed to the fact that the number of CMEs associated with quiescent filament eruptions (i.e., non-spot) from the high and low latitudes increases during the maximum phase (Gopalswamy et al. 2003b, 2003c).
The average of the intervals between two phreatic eruptions, i.e. the mean of intereruptive time ("IET") μ IET, is 9 months, with a standard deviation σ of 14 months.
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