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According to Simon's optimal two-stage design for uninterested and interested ORR of 10 and 30%, respectively, with both α and β errors probabilities of 0.05 and 0.20, respectively, 10 patients would be accrued in the first stage of each dosing cohort (Simon, 1989).
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Reichenbach extends the analysis to error probabilities for physical measurements.
Closed-form error probabilities are derived to verify the simulations.
Figure 6 Undetected error probabilities versus threshold choices.
The asymptotic expression is used to derive the error probabilities.
The upper bound and error probabilities are computed from [7 9].
Therefore, the error probabilities can vary significantly depending on location.
Fig. 1 Test statistic PDFs and error probabilities.
At 0.05 bpac PSB achieves about 0.35 error probability whereas MB1 and MB2 error probabilities are about 0.22.
The unconditional error probability is obtained by averaging over all the conditional error probabilities corresponding to the channel realizations.
In a formal Neyman-Pearson test it can be argued that judgments about error probabilities reflect objective error frequencies.
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