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Gemma Tetlow, of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said the £5bn would stimulate economic growth, though this would be within the margin of error of GDP forecasts.
* GDP/CPI error is the ratio of study statistical error of GDP forecasts divided by that of CPI forecasts; ** J.P. Morgan and Chase Manhattan, shown separately in the study but merged in 2000, were reranked as a single entity via an average of the individual results reported by the study.
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And it is doubtful come 2026 or later that there'll be anything in the way of proof that our economy is 1.1% larger than it otherwise would have been – especially when we're talking of things that are the order of 0.1% in a year – essentially a rounding error in terms of GDP growth.
But the public finances are unpredictable for other reasons: even if the Treasury had forecast GDP perfectly, its average one-year error would have been 1% of GDP and its four-year error would have been 2.4%.There is another snag.
Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) Robert Chote tells me it's "well within the margin of error" that GDP stays negative in Q1 2013 - in other words, the UK back into recession December 5, 2012 The latest 'central forecast', though, is for GDP to rise by 0.3% in Q1 2013 (and to be a new recession you need two quarters of falling output in a row).
National income accounts always have a "residual error," which is the difference of GDP estimates according to two of three possible conventions (Perman et al. [2003]).
With a margin for error of 0.2% in the overall GDP estimate, there is the possibility that once all the September data is available GDP will have grown by nearer 1% in Q3.
Even a year ahead, the average error (in either direction) in recent years has been 1.2% of GDP; four years ahead, it rises to 4.1% of GDP, or £42 billion (see chart).
Mr Brown is still planning on a deficit of 2% of GDP in 2007-08 leaving himself with little margin for error if things go wrong either economically or fiscally.
All that said, the IMF forecast is a million miles from being devastating for any party: the difference between a £7bn deficit and £7bn surplus in 2020 is just 0.6% of GDP or national income - which is a rounding error in the context of a deficit that was a humongous 10% of GDP just five years ago.
Indeed, it is almost a rounding error against a ten-year projected deficit of $10 trillion on current policies, or 5% of GDP.
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