"So everything else being equal, Republicans will have a turnout advantage".
They are split evenly down political lines... equal Republicans and Democrats and a significant number of independents as well".
That's why we'd expect, all other things being equal, the Republican candidate, Ken Cuccinelli, to win Virginia's gubernatorial election.
Redistricting, which cost Iowa one House seat, has left these two entrenched incumbents in an unusual face-off, vying for a new district that has been configured with roughly equal number Republican, Democratic and independent voters.
But Mr. Romney won two-thirds of the congressional districts; if all else had been equal, the Republican would have carried the Electoral College, becoming the first president who was trounced in the popular vote.
In the zero-sum game of our governing duopoly the Democrats' failure equals the Republicans' success, and voters have no choice but to vent their anger at whoever's in power.
Colorado's voter registration is divided roughly into equal thirds: Republicans, Democrats, and independents, with independents growing the fastest.
As some of the comments appended to Roe's post show, many conservatives instinctively believe that if the battleground state/spectator state bifurcation were ended, thus allowing every citizen's vote to have equal weight, Republicans would lose.
As a general rule, the more unequal a place is, the more Democratic; the more equal, the more Republican.
