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In 2009, Google published a research paper that explored the potential of early detection of flu epidemics based on statistical analysis of web search logs, though the results of that effort ultimately fell short of what had been hoped.
However, non-specific symptoms of influenza infection reduce the reliability for early detection of influenza epidemics based on increased consultation rates of influenza-like illness (ILI).
We developed a simple model based on Poisson seasonal regression to predict excess cases of pneumonia and influenza mortality during influenza epidemics, based on influenza morbidity data and the dominant types/subtypes of circulating viruses.
In most temperate regions, where influenza epidemics occur in relatively fixed periods (mostly winter time), the prediction of influenza epidemics based on ILI consultation rates is reliable as ILI data were well correlated with laboratory data [15].
Forecasts of epidemics based on indicators preceding elevated infection and disease rates in human population are therefore required.
Lastly, in the classification of seasonal influenza epidemics based on ILI data from the CDC, the methods' performance was comparable.
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Papua New Guinea (PNG), which shares the island with Indonesia, structured its response to its epidemic based on those early predictions.
In a press statement, UNAIDS executive director Peter Piot praised Mann as "a visionary global leader in the fight against AIDS" who "tirelessly promoted a response to the epidemic based on respect for human rights and human dignity".
They advised the Dutch government during the epidemic based on their knowledge which was obtained from on-going epidemiological research during that period and from international literature and discussion groups.
This multi-state back-calculation model will be useful to estimate HIV incidence, time to diagnosis, and the undiagnosed HIV epidemic based on routine surveillance data.
We also calculated a measure of regional speed of spread for each epidemic, based on the timing of P&I peaks in each state.
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CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com