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Faced with the current epidemic trajectory, however, the authors suggest that it might be judicious to contemplate how such severity trades off against ongoing, large-scale culling well into future decades.
However, cognitive risk estimates may inform individual behavioral change later in the RIDE epidemic trajectory and should be included in studies conducted during these phases.
To provide a realistic epidemic trajectory, we reduced the overall TB transmission rate to a degree sufficient to generate a 2% per year decline in TB incidence, the globally estimated average, five years before introducing the diagnostic interventions [ 18].
This new repertoire of models should enable many types of epidemic trajectory to be captured and uncertainty in the shape of the epidemic curve represented where data are sparse.
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Point prevalence was a far better predictor of the epidemic trajectories we observed, because it captures overlap duration and, by implication, some element of coital frequency.
These data sets provide a unique empirical resource; shedding light on the historical variations in sexual behavior that structured the underlying transmission networks leading to three very different epidemic trajectories.
The analysis based on the average nonextinct epidemic
Each stochastic model realization represents one result out of many possible epidemic trajectories.
More precisely, we simulated 200 000 epidemic trajectories without a vaccine trial from 7 June 2015 until 1 May 2016.
A stochastic compartmental model was built to simulate HCV and HIV epidemic trajectories among a prototype PWID population (V. Akbarzadeh, G.R. Mumtaz, L.J. Abu-Raddad, in preparation).
Simultaneously, the gender gap supports the modified Tobacco Epidemic Model because it suggests that males and females in many LMICs have different tobacco epidemic trajectories [ 10].
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