Under the assumption that an epidemic propagates from a single source to neighboring nodes following the susceptible-infected (SI) model [3], we identify the following properties.
If an epidemic propagates according to the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model [3] where a node can recover and cannot infect neighbors after the recovery, the properties hold by treating recovered nodes as infected nodes.
The analysis suggests that the HIV-1C epidemic propagated from East Africa (phylotype no. 4844) towards South America (no. 5204, coverage of 99%), a link already identified on several occasions (e.g. Véras et al., 2011).
MDR-TB epidemics propagated more extensively after TB prevalence had fallen.
Common to all reported chocolate-outbreaks, including ours, was that the epidemics were propagated in time, widely disseminated geographically, and affected large number of persons, predominantly children [ 12- 17] (table 3).
We describe a flexible statistical framework for generating optimal epidemiological interventions that are designed to minimize the total expected cost of an emerging epidemic while simultaneously propagating uncertainty regarding the underlying disease model parameters through to the decision process.
Once in a Monte Carlo-based framework, it becomes straightforward to couple the evaluation of intervention strategies with Bayesian procedures for performing on-line estimation of parameters of the underlying epidemic model, thereby propagating parameter uncertainty through to policy decisions.
However, nomads can propagate an epidemic from one area to another (Schelling et al. 2005).
An IF of 1.5 results in the current accepted infectivity for the 1918 1920 pandemic, equivalent to an R0 of about 2.0 (R0 is the number of secondary infections produced by one individual in a susceptible population; when R0 is <1.0 an epidemic cannot continue to propagate [22], [23]).
Furthermore, South Africa is also known to harbour Aedes aegypti in sufficient numbers to propagate an epidemic of DENV (24).
