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In 2014, when the Ebola outbreak hit west Africa, Phelan consulted on the epidemic for both the World Health Organisation and the countries affected.
Although recent cumulative case data over October 2014 from Liberia suggest that the exponential growth that has characterized the epidemic for both communities and health care workers may be slowing down (30), it is too early to tell whether this apparent reduction in the effective reproductive number is a result of control measures initiated toward the end of September.
Although recent cumulative case data over October 2014 from Liberia suggest that the exponential growth that has characterized the epidemic for both communities and healthcare workers may be slowing down (30), it is too early to tell whether this apparent reduction in the effective reproductive number is a result of control measures initiated toward the end of September.
More than 60% of HIV-infected adults in SSA are women, who are disproportionately affected by the HIV-1 epidemic for both biological and socio-cultural reasons[ 1, 3, 4].
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We used this cut-off to define the duration of the AHC epidemics for both cities.
As expected significant clustering appears with some delay with respect to the onset of the epidemics (for both peaks) (see also Fig. 5).
The seeding of the influenza in all parts of Sweden over the summer period, followed by epidemic spread first in October for both the Asian Influenza and the A(H1N1 pdm09 indicates that lowering of temperature is vital for the onset of epidemic spread.
Moreover, winter recess likely affected the epidemic curves for both schoolchildren and university students simultaneously.
Similarly, a budget cut to TB treatment programmes for migrants could increase death rates in the short term, so lowering disease prevalence and associated spread, while potentially exacerbating longer-term epidemic trajectories for both local and immigrant populations.
And, as before, there are political and economic consequences deriving from considering smoking persons as non-agents: tobacco consumption can then be comfortably fitted within the epidemic model for both research and practice purposes, and certain forms of public health interventions are reinforced and reified, even if their effectiveness is limited (Mair and Kierans 2007).
For future studies, it would be optimal to have seasonal epidemics for which both sentinel data and serologic information about the overall and the age-dependent infection rate is available.
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