Exact(1)
We re-estimated the projections for 1991 to 2000 based on more recent estimates of 1980 to 1990 HIV-AIDS prevalence using the Spectrum modeling software, and compared the old and new projections with the actual epidemic figures reported by NAC.
Similar(58)
Per simulation, we determined the total number of infections (Figure 5A) and the duration of an epidemic (Figure 5B), which characterize the extent of the first outbreak of infections and the ability of the virus to persist in the population even in its initial ill-adapted form (with reduced transmission efficiency compared with modern HIV).
Of these subtrajectories, only a few appear to be critical in sustaining the epidemic (Figure 2c).
Resistance to the drug in greater supply dominates the epidemic (Figure 6a) and multi-drug resistance is rare (Figure 7a).
However, we posit that they may also stem from the relative contribution of indirect transmission, which is likely to increase over time during the epidemic (Figure 8).
The timing of the increase in median number of effective infections also fits well with the more distinguished demographic pattern seen for the entire CRF02_AG epidemic (Figure 2b).
As the duration of travel approaches the disease incubation period, effective symptomatic screening substantially reduces the likelihood that a traveler evades screening and initiates an epidemic (Figure 2B).
This is because the lesser quantity is unlikely to last long in the later phases of an exponentially growing epidemic (Figure 8a).
Our findings indicated that under the umbrella of an overall trajectory of the simulated HIV epidemic (Figure 2c, inset), the CCL3L1-CCR5 GRG-defined pairner populationation groups discriminate for several distinct subtrajectories with different shapes and time-scales (Figure 2c).
With individual-based removal of infected travelers, the number of individuals entering the at-risk country undetected by screening is proportionately reduced over the course of the epidemic (Figure 3A).
Both parametric and non-parametric subtype B demographic curves looked approximately linear during the first decade of the epidemic, and experienced a sharper increase only within the next fifteen years during the same time-frame of the introduction and exponential growth of subtype A epidemic (Figure 3).
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