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The analysis of the epidemic evolution and the evaluation of multiple mitigation strategies are performed using an SEIR model on the contact network.
For instance, an increasing research effort targets the simulation of epidemic evolution: starting from SARS [3], to the new virus of Influenza A (H1N1) [10].
The probabilities of producing no secondary cases related to early extinction and of extinction after <img src="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/asset?id=info?doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0009371.e105.PNG" class= inline-graphic"/> generations summarize the main interesting dynamical behaviours, since they provide information on extinction at different stages in the epidemic evolution.
We compared a variety of summary measures such as the probability of having a large outbreak, the epidemic evolution (attack rate, basic reproductive number, peak day, proportion of infected by age) and the spatial diffusion, i.e., the average distance from the seed area for individuals infected since the start of the epidemic as a function of time.
For rare diseases it might be necessary to use less stringent stopping rules than for diseases characterized by an epidemic evolution.
However, late-stage infection contribution tends to balance acute infection contribution with epidemic evolution leading to small overall viral load variation.
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However, only a few computational tools are presently available for assessing scenarios, predicting epidemic evolutions, and managing health emergencies that can benefit a broad audience of users including policy makers and health institutions.
One aspect that may be driving the epidemic is evolution of the causative pathogen, Mycobacterium bovis.
Surveillance of WNV transmission in Harris County, Texas, provides an excellent model for elucidating the dynamics of endemic and epidemic WNV evolution on a fine geographic scale.
In addition, more studies detailing the parameters shaping the epidemic and the evolution of HIV-1 recombinants would provide valuable insights into the transmission of HIV-1 in South America and would aid the design of region-specific vaccines.
The implementation in Europe of this exhaustive surveillance plan meant that the BSE status of countries, an estimate of the extent of the epidemic and its evolution could be updated year by year.
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