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Exact(39)

Estimation of seasonal baseline is a challenging statistical problem because the observations comprising baseline versus epidemic activity are not identifiable.

Peak epidemic activity was reached late October and early November in northern, and two weeks later in southern parts of the country.

In September 2009 the pandemic virus started to spread in the general population, leading to localized outbreaks and peak epidemic activity was reached during weeks 43 48.

Epidemic periods which did not give rise to significant excess mortality caused lower overall excess mortality, although positive deviations from baseline mortality were detectable for most periods for which epidemic activity had been reported (Figure 3).

As part of a series of surveys to monitor A/H1N1 epidemic activity, a commercial polling organization administered the questionnaire using this telephone-survey methodology, targeting 1,000 1,500 participants on each occasion, a sample size calculated to give an estimate of A/H1N1 health protective behaviours with a precision of ±3%.

Overall, virus surveillance data for this period confirms the seasonal trends evidenced in the analysis of mortality data by suggesting an earlier influenza epidemic activity on average in Belém (although statistical analyses of the viral data could not distinguish the mean annual timing of virus data in Belém and São Paulo with statistical significance).

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Similar(21)

Epidemic JE activity has been detected in the last 60 years in most provinces of mainland China, except for Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous, Tibet and Qinghai Province.

However, after the initial epidemic, WNV activity has been progressively more difficult to predict by using DYCAST because of reduced reporting to the California Dead Bird Hotline.

However, the expansion of IS elements into just a small proportion of neutral space might be sufficient to precipitate an epidemic of activity, as a simple consequence of increasing IS element copy number.

In addition to minipool-NAT screening, several blood centers performed individual donation NAT screening in regions experiencing epidemic WNV activity to interdict donations with low-level viremia that could be missed by minipool-NAT (14 – 14 ).

However, the goal of state and county WNV surveillance is not to document endemic virus circulation, but rather predict increased risk for human transmission and epidemic level activity in time to initiate public notification and preventive measures.

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