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Rick Santorum FiveThirtyEight forecast (most likely outcome): 27 percent High end of forecast range: 35 percent Low end of forecast range: 20 percent Arizona's somewhat libertarian-leaning politics are not the most natural fit for Mr. Santorum.
Newt Gingrich 538 forecast (most likely outcome): 15 percent High end of forecast range: 24 percent Low end of forecast range: 7 percent It is perhaps hardest to anticipate how the news media will react to Mr. Gingrich's performance.
Mitt Romney FiveThirtyEight forecast (most likely outcome): 51 percent High end of forecast range: 56 percent Low end of forecast range: 41 percent Our forecast model was designed for states in which there is robust polling — not just two surveys.
Newt Gingrich FiveThirtyEight forecast (most likely outcome): 29 percent High end of forecast range: 38 percent Low end of forecast range: 20 percent Absent a miracle victory in Florida, Mr. Gingrich's goals are essentially the mirror opposite of Mr. Romney's.
Rick Santorum 538 forecast (most likely outcome): 14 percent High end of forecast range: 22 percent Low end of forecast range: 7 percent South Carolina has in some ways been frustrating for Mr. Santorum.
Jon M. Huntsman Jr. 538 forecast (most likely outcome): 4 percent High end of forecast range: 8 percent Low end of forecast range: 0 percent Mr. Huntsman abandoned Iowa long ago and has had little presence in the state.
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The company also warned that its third-quarter profits would land at the low end of forecasts.
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