Are we catching a glimpse of the end of this cyclical global expansion, or is it a classic mid-cycle pause?
The transition, the precise turning point, between the end of one cyclical period and the start of another designates a new year.
As of the end of September, however, cyclicals and defensives yielded exactly the same:700 basis points over the Treasury curve.
Crime ends as a result of "cyclical forces operating on situational and contingent things rather than from finding deeply motivated essential linkages".
Crime ends as a result of "cyclical forces operating on situational and contingent things rather than from finding deeply motivated essential linkages," Zimring says, meaning that the best solution is an "all of the above" solution, many small smart moves made in different ways over time.
Were investors to continue to seek defensive, inflation-protected investments, the UK water stocks may continue to outperform the more cyclical end of the sector.
The rate is relatively constant at around 22% from 1979 to the big tax cuts of the George W. Bush years (the ones we're still arguing about!), when they start to slide; the decline at the end of the series is both cyclical and policy driven, as pretax income declines in the Great Recession and Recovery Act tax cuts lowered tax liabilities.
Now the end of QE may prove pro-cyclical in emerging markets (exacerbating ongoing slowdowns) but is also pro-cyclical or at best neutral in advanced economies (since tightening is occurring amid a continued demand shortfall).
Meanwhile, a government shutdown looms by the end of March - the latest in a series of cyclical budget battles that have crippled the bitterly divided US Congress.
Early G.D.I. numbers have provided a better indicator of cyclical changes in the economy — of the onset and the end of the last recession, in particular — than have early readings of G.D.P., according to research by Jeremy J. Nalewaik, a Fed economist.
