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In each elicitation session, experts were individually elicited in a blind procedure, with the following objectives: (i) An individual weight w e was anonymously assigned to each expert by the other members of the panel.
Two score thresholds (s M and s m ) were defined after each elicitation session in order to classify the parameters according to high, intermediate and low score.
The weight of each parameter for forecasting purposes (w i in Figure 1) is assigned as the product of the 50-th percentile of the w i p distribution multiplied by the probability of acceptance p a. The results of each elicitation session are reported in Tables 1, 2 and 3 for seismologic, geodetic, and geochemical parameters, respectively.
The exact wording of the questions might be open for discussion during the elicitation session.
This characterisation subsequently affects choices about the types of experts to invite, and the format of the questions and elicitation session (steps 2, 3 and 4).
At the start of an expert elicitation session, typically an introduction will be held about the field of interest and the purpose of the meeting in order to familiarize the experts with the subject matter.
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After these elicitation sessions, each proposed definition was collectively discussed.
Figure 2 Convergence in the number of selected parameters through elicitation sessions.
The output of the expert elicitation sessions for node 1 is reported in Table 4.
We report a complete list of the participants to all the elicitation sessions, in strict alphabetical order.
The number of selected parameters (here we only show those with p α =1) decreases significantly through elicitation sessions, showing the convergence process of experts.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com