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Dick Morris has one of the worst electoral prediction records known to man.
However, whilst a variety of positive results have been published, some strong criticisms of socially generated predictions have also been raised, particularly in the field of electoral prediction (which, perhaps because of the widespread availability of validation data or because of its importance for conventional opinion polling has been the most frequent application of this type of prediction).
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A year is an extremely long time in politics, and there is every likelihood that electoral predictions made now will prove to have been dramatically off-base come April or May next year.
Meanwhile, the most influential Shia political leader in the ruling coalition has upended electoral predictions, disbanding his party and retiring from politics with a departing blast of accusations against his former partners.Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, in power since 2005, puts a positive spin on the downward spiral.
Who knows if this wager will pay off: if recent events haven't endowed the commentariat with humility when it comes to electoral predictions, nothing will.
Granted, there are probably more electoral-prediction models by now than candidates for public office, and it's a safe bet that Michael Bloomberg will be reëlected without consulting any of them.
Exceeding even the most adventurous pre-electoral predictions, the M5S emerged as Italy's biggest single party in the chamber – a result that will send shockwaves through the eurozone and beyond.
Despite pre-electoral predictions, Mr. Berlusconi's People of Freedom party and its Northern League ally won 6 out of 13 regions being contested, capturing 4 from the center-left opposition.
9 20 P.M. E.T.: As I said earlier, I'll be comparing our John Cassidy's final electoral college predictions to reality as the night goes on.
A recurring theme of the campaign has been the vigorous efforts, by some Republican supporters, to find ways to deny the reality of Obama's narrow but steady lead in numerous swing-state polls and electoral college predictions.
That is certainly the impression you get if you look at any of the polls, state-by-state electoral maps, or prediction markets out there.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com