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This "polling aggregation" method is at the heart of FiveThirtyEight's US election predictions.
"But Nate Silver's election predictions put a much broader spotlight on statistics.
FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver, whose election predictions are closely watched inside the Beltway, declared Cassidy the 99.8% favourite to win.
Jonathan Hyde (@JonGuardian) Team Shameless pic.twitter.com/7hLosDuOmj January 17 , 20144.29pm GMT Seán Clarke has a hack called Indian election predictions.
Not so, insisted a new breed of political analysts who rejected intuition and relied instead on data — vast amounts of it, run through computer algorithms — to arrive at their election predictions.
Such was the calculus that brought Mr. Cameron to this bastion of the Liberal Democrats, the third party that has upset all election predictions with the surging popularity of its leader, Nick Clegg.
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But there is considerable data behind his election prediction, using his econometric models.
QUITE a few American pundits are at this moment playing the election prediction game.
My foolhardy election prediction of the day: Nu Brand could have a big hit on their hands if they release that Tory song.
Surveying only likely voters might make for a better election prediction, but it means that the reason for measuring public opinion, the entire justification for the endeavor, has been abandoned.
This is one local election prediction that is still pending.
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