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I suppose we can be even more detail oriented once we get the general election model up and running.
We'll be using this individual-level voter data in other ways as we roll out the general election model.
They urged a No vote on the basis that if the referendum were defeated there would be another referendum on a direct election model within a few years.
The most rigorous election model that takes RDPI into account is Douglas Hibbs's Bread and Peace model, which explains 86% of the differences in election results since 1952.
Meanwhile, party operatives, crunching the unfriendly numbers, are rethinking the red state versus blue state election model mastered by tacticians like Karl Rove.
But it's not clear the Reagan election model can work in the 21st century, as America's population has become more diverse.
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Most election modelling suggests it will turn on a handful of races in states such as Colorado and Iowa.
That reality alone probably justifies some of the current tilt toward Obama in prediction markets and election models like my colleague Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog.
Election models put Hillary Clinton's chances of victory in November's presidential election at over 80% – in the words of the New York Times, her chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an NFL kicker misses a field goal from the 20-yard line.
They provided a summary of various leading US presidential election models that use various independent variables such as presidential popularity, GNP growth, primary support, house party advantage, peace and prosperity, and incumbency.
His talent with election modeling has led to a new home at the New York Times.
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