Thanks to Nate Silver's daily election forecast, polls have become the new coffee.
Get the latest updates to the Upshot's election forecast, presidential polling and the latest from NYT Politics desk.
Translate that into seats on the basis of five different online electoral models (May 2015, Election Forecast, Elections Etc, Poll Observatory and the Guardian) and the Tories maintain their advantage.
Here in the UK this week, however, it was the polls that were wrong, and even the seemingly infallible Silver - who took a break from US politics to dip his toe in the general election forecasting game - came away befuddled.
Even though election forecasting guru Nate Silver predicted Angle would win with 83% confidence, his own post-election analysis suggested that his prediction could have been based on biased polls in Nevada, with bad Latino samples in particular.
As Election Day dawns, the final HuffPost Pollster election forecasts, based on all public polls, show that while a half dozen key Senate races remain very close, Republicans are on the verge of winning a majority of the U.S. Senate and adding to their existing majority in the U.S. House.
LIBERALS LEAD IN CANADA- Canada is having a parliamentary election on Monday, and most of the polls and election forecasts show that the battle for the most seats will be a nail-biter between the Liberal and Conservative parties.
Just as our election forecasts assign more weight to certain polls, we do not treat all awards equally.
The site features a primary- and general-election forecasting system that weights polls based on an individual pollster's track record, the survey's sample size, and the date of the poll (surveys have a half-life of 30 days, he says, based on empirical evidence derived from the 2000, 2004, and 2006 election cycles).
Election Forecast, a group of political scientists who have been crunching polls and historical data for months now, project that the Conservatives will win 281 seats, Labour 266, the centrist Liberal Democrats 26 and the separatist Scottish National Party 53 (some studies suggest the Tories will do slightly better, others that Labour will; Election Forecast sits roughly at the mid- point).
Even then, however, national polls are just one of the things you should be looking at to make an election forecast.
