Being this type of "incumbent" doesn't really guarantee election (at least not in the way that an elected incumbent has such an advantage).
The voters this Sunday will elect all state governors and legislatures, the lower house of Congress and a third of the Senate, as well as the president.Of the 27 states, 19 are expected to re-elect incumbent governors or successors from the same parties.
Since World War II, elected incumbent presidents have won by an average of 7.5 points when seeking a second term.
Upon independence, the directly elected incumbent president of the southern Sudan region became president of the country for a four-year term.
Nonetheless, another theme: although Mr. Obama's raw vote share looks reasonably strong, Mr. Obama's margin over Mr. Romney is not that impressive for an elected incumbent.
The economy is bad, but perhaps not quite bad enough to oust an elected incumbent who otherwise has a fair number of advantages.
If an elected incumbent wins by a margin in the high single digits in an the average year, that gives him quite a bit of slack if conditions are below-average, but not terrible.
In addition, for elected incumbent senators who are running for another term, the model considers their previous margin of victory relative to the overall partisan climate at that time.
Mr. Ramirez has long made clear his commitment to re-electing incumbent Democrats and is said by party officials to view Mr. Seabrook's candidacy as a major annoyance.
(Anderson finished with 7 percent of the vote.) In the electoral college, the scale of Reagan's victory was dramatic 489 to 49. Carter became the first elected incumbent to be defeated for reelection as president since Herbert Hoover lost to Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932.
When an elected incumbent retires from the Senate in a swing state, for instance, the odds of his party's winning the next election are roughly 50-50 — not much better (as would be the case if there were residual benefits for the incumbent's party even after the incumbent himself retired) and not much worse (as might be the case if voters were fatigued by having the same party in office).
