Exact(3)
I would like to clarify the purpose and accuracy of early GDP estimates.The advance estimate of GDP provides a quick reading on the economy.
Yet this fall is too big to be credible; the survey (like early GDP numbers and other Japanese statistics) is notoriously unreliable.Meanwhile, expectations are rising, even if habits have not yet caught up.
"In the past, the ONS's early GDP estimates have contained no statistically useful information about growth".
Similar(57)
The data from statistics body ELSTAT confirmed an earlier GDP estimate and showed a sharp drop in business investment and falling exports and imports.
But it has risen more during this recession than most formulations of Okun's Law would suggest.The publication last week of revisions to earlier GDP data explains some of the discrepancy.
Recovery is now thought to have started a bit earlier: GDP was revised up by around half a percent in both 2009 and 2010.The hope is that another burst of QE will give the recovery a fillip.
The first is that many of the environmental effects of earlier GDP growth will be delayed.
Exports rose by a seasonally adjusted 3.1% between November and December, while imports rose by 1.7%.In this section Overview Output, prices and jobs The Economist commodity-price index Aid Trade, exchange rates, budget balances and interest rates Markets Anti-dumping ReprintsAccording to an early estimate, GDP in the euro area fell by 2.1% in the year to the fourth quarter.
However, it reckons that the recession in the euro area will be even deeper than it had earlier predicted: GDP in the countries that use the euro is now forecast to shrink by 4.8% this year, a downward revision of 0.6 percentage points.
We suspect that the committee was loathe to respond to an early estimate of GDP that was heavily affected by the weather and a lost working day - none of which monetary policy can do anything about.
Government and businesses want information fast, so ONS produces its early estimates of GDP based on partial information before all the data that will eventually be available is in.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
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