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The Council of Mortgage Lenders said the stamp duty concession "looks like a tax loophole waiting to happen".
The group's economist, Paul Samter, said: "The stamp duty concession has played a modest role in underpinning confidence in the housing market.
"As the end date for the stamp duty concession approaches we may see sustained levels of activity at the lower end of the market in a traditionally quiet time.
The CML's director general, Paul Smee, said: "July's figures show a gradual improvement in the market with lending approaching the sort of levels we saw at the end of the stamp duty concession.
Application of most-favoured-nation treatment was limited in the past by the practice of granting concessions to the principal supplier country in an effort to obtain reciprocal concessions or by reclassifying and minutely defining items in the customs tariff so that a duty concession, while general in form, applies in practice to only one country.
However, this may turn out to have been a short-term burst of activity, prompted by a small number of extra first-time home buyers moving to take advantage of the government's stamp duty concession before it expired on 24 March.
Similar(54)
One reason for the higher surplus next year is that the Treasury has not incorporated the cost of the ULS and vehicle excise duty concessions into its projections, on the somewhat flimsy ground that these measures remain subject to consultation.
These include priority in school admissions, duty concessions for importing a vehicle for personal use, a pension after retirement and other financial remunerations, such as loans at low interest.
The package will include stamp-duty concessions.
The group has been struggling to recover from the blow of abolition last July of the duty free concession within the European Union.
Paul Smee, director general of the CML, said: "While the [stamp duty] concession may not have stimulated additional demand, it was a significant help to home-owners entering the market and its removal runs counter to the themes of the new housing strategy.
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