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Simply increasing the contribution of the duration term does not resolve the changes over time.
This trend persisted even when the duration term was increased in the risk equation.
The duration term estimates the effect-modification of cumulative lag terms above the 98th percentile indirectly, with the prior assumption that the length of the heat wave period can influence the mortality response.
The effect of an overestimate of duration in the CPS I data would be expected to be larger since the exponent on the duration term in the risk equation is large (2.87).
We systematically altered the exponent for the duration term in 0.1 increments and decrements and compared the new estimates for birth-cohort-specific risks to the observed U.S. mortality rates using the previously derived values for the adjustments for the differences between CPS I and the U.S. mortality (the α1 and β1) parameters.
While increasing the duration term does increase the estimated rates, as it must, the pattern remains one where there is a progressive change as calendar year advances with an overestimate of the actual risk giving way to an underestimate of the risk.
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1. for including employment duration terms: χ2 (2df) =5.84, p=0.05.
They showed equally effective potencies for spinal anesthesia in both sensory blockade onset time and duration terms.
Employment duration terms (linear and squared) were statistically significant and included in all matched analyses (except the initial descriptive analysis by minor sector of longest duration).
All five models include reproductive, demographic risk factors as in Table 4 and employment duration terms; IpAg, interaction with farming: cumulative (sector rating × prior cum. exposure in agriculture).
A subset of early/fast events with larger onset durations termed "early/slow" events, were first reported by Haldoupis et al. (2004).
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