Only a few percentage drops of GDP and international tensions and unrest won't be far behind".
It has been estimated that in order to mitigate the effect of a large price increase, i.e., prevent the drop of real GDP, domestic gas consumption should be reduced by 36%%, which equals a 12%% decline of the energy-intensity of the economy.
Zhang Zhiwei of Nomura thinks it will drop to 0.4% of GDP by 2015.
Several private-sector economists forecast that it could drop below 4% of GDP this year, down from nearly 11% in 2007.
It sees Spain's deficit barely shifting next year, with a drop from 7%to6.9%9% of GDP, while unemployment is set to rise to 28%.
The states' deficit should drop to 2.2% of GDP in the year ending March 2012, from a peak of almost 5% a decade ago.
The structural deficit, which strips out the effects of the economic cycle, will drop from 8.7% of GDP to 0.8% (see chart).
The government hopes that overall public spending will drop from 57% of GDP to 54% in 2017.Mr Valls has begun to show some steeliness.
Its deficit will barely shift next year, with a drop from 7% of GDP in 2012, not including the cost of bailing out its banks, to 6.9%, while unemployment is set to rise to 28%.
Within this subsidies, mainly to fuel, are forecast to drop from 2.6% of GDP to 2.0% by the year to March 2014, freeing up space for other schemes, of which a plethora were announced.
