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With no real hopes for a breakthrough in negotiations, the Pentagon's current thinking seems to be to keep troop levels up for at least a few months after President Obama's declared June 2011 drawdown date, to show the Taliban that the force and the will to beat them will remain if they don't come to the table.
MICHAEL HUGHES: Will the July 2011 drawdown date set by President Obama cause Pakistan to align more closely with the Afghan Taliban, knowing the U.S. military will be leaving at some point?
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In our pursuit of certainty, we'll latch on to that number (roughly 600 days) and become convinced that when we start closing in on that date, another drawdown must be around the corner.
But the pace of the drawdown, and the final departure date, would depend on "conditions on the ground".
Obama doubled-down by committing tens of thousands more troops to show he was no wimp, only to set a date for a drawdown to show he was no warmonger.
There's simply no way to know whether he's lying to us about his intention to start a drawdown in 2011 until that date arrives.
After the scheduled summer review, he will not only begin a troop drawdown but also confirm the 2014 date for complete withdrawal.
Indeed, a continuing bid for stocks, and thus the attendant evaporation of volatility, may actually indicate a case of 'rational exuberance'". "Year-to-date, the largest S&P 500 drawdown is remarkably low.
Beyond that, he offered a drawdown chart that had more question marks than dates.
For weeks, American officials have been talking about fragile progress, a small drawdown of troops starting next summer, and 2014 as the date when Afghans will take "the lead" for their own security.
The bulk of SOTG was withdrawn from Afghanistan in late 2013 as part of a drawdown of Australian forces, although some special forces remained after this date as part of the small Australian force maintained in the country.
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