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And governments set military budgets according to their involvement in wars and their perception of external threats neither of which has much connection with the business cycle.But in this downturn, something different is going on.
Ideally, we'd call a supply-side downturn something other than a recession perhaps a "regression"—and reserve the recession term for demand fluctuations only.We could then speak very clearly about what a recession is: an instance in which demand falls below potential.
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These imbalances can turn a mild downturn into something nastier, causing inflation to undershoot or, worse, to turn to deflation, as in Japan.
What has yet to sink in is that the current downturn is something more than the bottom of another cycle in the technology industry.
The president, meanwhile, has been eager to define the economic downturn as something that began a year ago, before he was on the job.
The downturn is something people here read about in the newspapers, according to Dhanna Singh, a member of the Mazdoor Kisan Shakti Sangathan (MKSS), a union of activists and farmers.
The longer a bubble is allowed to inflate, the more it encourages the build-up of other imbalances, such as too much borrowing and investment, which have the power to turn a mild downturn into something nastier.
(What good is asset liquidation of a few tens of millions or even hundreds of millions against financial crises registering in the tens of billions?) Even during a downturn, supporting something like an international art fair remains a great way for banks to reach out to a likely client base, so long as buyers still flock the fairs.
It represents a stark downturn and something that should slightly worry Apple.
Be sure the downturn is something your company or department can weather, either by making cuts or putting more emphasis on the things that are most profitable.
For New York to see a downturn, he added, "something more dramatic is going to have to happen".
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com