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In 1785 he published his Essai sur l'application de l'analyse à la probabilité des décisions rendues à la pluralité des voix (Essay on the Application of Analysis to the Probability of Majority Decisions), a remarkable work that has a distinguished place in the history of the doctrine of probability.
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(Most English translations would render it as "the rule of probability" or the "doctrine of chance").
Rather than holding that probability is a measure of degree of confidence or belief, then, Peirce adopted an objectivist notion of probability that he explicitly likened to the doctrine of John Venn.
The French mathematician Abraham de Moivre, in his Doctrine of Chances (1718), first noted that probabilities associated with discretely generated random variables (such as are obtained by flipping a coin or rolling a die) can be approximated by the area under the graph of an exponential function.
"Risk" means precise mathematical assessment of probability.
Given that the balance of probability suggests that the regime did use the weapons, one possible explanation suggests a profound shift in both the regime's analysis of the likelihood of a meaningful international response and a further worrying development in the Syrian military doctrine for the use of chemical weapons.
It may defy laws of probability.
First, which interpretation of probability is appropriate?
It's a matter of probability.
Understand the field of probability.
He is best known for his memoir Doctrine of Chances: A method of calculating the probabilities of events in play, which was first printed in 1618 and dedicated to Newton.
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