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The distributions of predictions and errors for the training pool accurately predicted the distribution of predictions and errors for large external validation sets, even when the number of positive and negative examples in the training pool were not balanced.
The distribution of predictions indicates that there is much more fear of a negative surprise than there is hope for a positive one.
(A) Distribution of predictions (blue) and errors (red) for the external validation set.
(C) Distribution of predictions (blue) and errors (red) for the external validation set.
(A and C) Distribution of predictions (blue) and errors (red) for the external validation set.
The distribution of predictions and its fitted beta binomial are the same for both models; they are represented by the solid and dotted blue line, respectively.
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An uncertainty analysis of the model predictions assessed the spatial distribution of prediction uncertainty and the contribution of different error sources to that uncertainty.
Also, this article concludes that the distribution of prediction errors approaches a normal distribution with a variance equal to the GPM prediction variance, even in the presence of significant bias in the GPM predictions.
In particular, this work focuses on the correlation between the GPM prediction variance and the distribution of prediction errors over multiple experimental designs, as a function of location in the input space.
The representation of the geological structure also allows a more precise definition of the spatial distribution of prediction uncertainty, here quantified with a metric based on Shannon information entropy.
Predictions based in that linear relationship give the mean predicted error (MPE) equal to 0.0015 g/cm3 over the total number of soils, and the normal distribution of prediction errors with the standard deviation of to 0.16 g/cm3.
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Since I tried Ludwig back in 2017, I have been constantly using it in both editing and translation. Ever since, I suggest it to my translators at ProSciEditing.

Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com