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Over the past year, officials have put into place rigorous new procedures for analyzing conclusions about difficult intelligence targets like Iran, North Korea, global terrorism and China.
The end of the Soviet germ warfare program alone left tens of thousands of former employees in desperate financial straits, and tracking their whereabouts is difficult, intelligence officials say.
Still, some acknowledge significant intelligence gaps in understanding the intentions of Iran's leaders and whether they would approve the crucial steps toward engineering a bomb, the most covert aspect of one of the most difficult intelligence collection targets in the world.
John E. McLaughlin, the deputy director of the Central Intelligence Agency from 2000 to 2004 and the acting director for two months in 2004, said the agencies' shifting view between 2005 and 2007 simply showed how difficult intelligence was to get right.
It applies a famously difficult intelligence test that requires recruits to know arcane things they will never use on the job.
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But picking out the most intelligent person is difficult, because intelligence involves many attributes that can't be captured in a one-time assessment, like an I.Q.
That secretive tradition has made Shiite groups extremely difficult for intelligence officers to penetrate, the former C.I.A. officers said.
That made it extremely difficult for intelligence officials to develop strong analytical judgments about critical foreign policy issues facing the president.
Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, in a television appearance today, noted that the Iraqi leader threw weapons inspectors out in 1998, making it more difficult for intelligence agencies to get hard information.
Given the idiosyncratic nature of a spy's motives, it is difficult for intelligence agencies, try as they might, to identify potential traitors within their ranks, or to weed out high-risk job applicants.
Merely stating that defeating ISIS will require a strategy and sustained difficult military, intelligence and diplomatic efforts unfortunately does not provide any sort of answer or indication of a true understanding of the complexities swirling right now in the Middle East.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com