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Before attempting to identify precursory phenomena, a fundamental question is whether there are different forecast methods applicable to seismicity in a region of interest, in particular in Japan.
This method also uses a ensemble forecasting by generating 100 different forecasting where each forecaster varies by which topic was randomly chosen for target selection.
If different forecasting approaches lead to different results, focus on differences in their underlying assumptions, their sources of data, their intrinsic biases, and their respective margins for error.
The second main reason for the differences in forecasts in Fig. 1 is in the use of different forecast models.
The difference between the DRCA scheme and the ARCA scheme is that they use different forecast algorithms and the ARCA scheme can forecast optimal numbers of ranging codes distributed among four ranging code subgroups.
Sometimes it provides different forecasts.
"They give you a different forecast every day".
"Each has its own [weather] model that can produce a slightly different forecast and at other times can produce very different forecasts," he said.
(By "consensus" I just mean: the average of the different forecasts).
The International Monetary Fund, he says, "has issued four different forecasts about growth for 2011.
(By "consensus" I just mean: the average of all the different forecasts that use state polling in a systematic way).
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