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When excluding the low wind range of 4 12 knots, the rms deviation in wind direction reduces to 22°.
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The robustified NMPC (RNMPC) proposed here uses knowledge of the estimated worst-case deviation in wind-power production to make the NMPC more robust.
Tests on a proxy of the Nordic power system show that the RNMPC is able to fulfill system constraints under worst-case deviations in wind-power production, where the nominal NMPC is not.
On decadal scales, the timing of seasonal onset strongly corresponds with deviation in the zonal wind intensity as described by length of day (LOD); on shorter scales, these temperature patterns shift in concert with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
We calculated mean angular deviation to compare variability in wind direction, where values range from 0° (no dispersion) to 81.03° (maximum dispersion).
In contrast to small deviation in the load prediction, wind output remains at obvious variance with the predicted value.
The daily average of the direction was then the mean value averaged over the sampling period; the standard deviation was a measure of the variability in wind direction measurement.
While most thunderstorms move with the mean wind flow through the layer of the troposphere that they occupy, vertical wind shear causes a deviation in their course at a right angle to the wind shear direction.
It is shown that at least a 20% standard deviation in the estimate of local wind speeds has to be accounted for.
Open image in new window Fig. 3 Standard deviation of wind speeds varied over one month August , 2012) in the Jixi Wind Farm.
Deviations in the directional wind speed predictions were found to correspond with the length of the sea fetch: For smaller sea fetches WAsP seems to slightly over-predict the wind speed, while for long fetches of more than 30 km an under-prediction is found.
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