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Although the pattern of epidemic cycles in Africa is not well understood, several factors have been associated with the development of epidemics in the meningitis belt.
In the development of epidemics it is not only the average parasite production that matters, but also the distribution of secondary cases infected by single individuals.
It is now admitted that a lack of immunity against diphtheria in adults represents a potential threat that could lead to the development of epidemics in industrialized countries [17], [21].
It is, therefore, difficult to gain enough insight into the interplay of the various factors to predict the development of epidemics and formulate appropriate mitigation strategies.
However, rapid increases in the number of cases are clearly tracked by spikes in clustering, indicating that secondary transmission plays a fundamental role in the development of epidemics.
A spatial association between cholera cases and water sources should be observed if primary transmission drives the development of epidemics, with no significant spatial correlation between observed cholera cases at the beginning of the outbreak [ 8].
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The development of epidemic-forecasting systems is important in the control and prevention of infectious disease.
EBV-activating plant factors are among several co-factors which have been proposed for the development of epidemic Burkitt's Lymphoma (eBL).
The objective is to explore the role of the aquatic reservoir on the persistence of endemic cholera as well as to define minimum conditions for the development of epidemic and endemic cholera.
Although this assumption often provides a good approximation that helps reduce complexity of the model, in many cases it is just not realistic and results in erroneous conclusions about the onset and development of epidemic outbreaks (Bansal et al. 2007; Burr and Chowell 2008).
These estimates also help in tracking the development of regional epidemics in the context of global situation [ 1].
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