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That information, the researchers say, could help them recognize viruses on the way to developing pandemic potential.
The benefits come from information that can be used to help predict which flu viruses circulating in the environment may be developing pandemic potential.
That way, scientists would know how to identify changes in the naturally occurring virus that might be warning signals that it was developing pandemic potential.
Understanding the extent to which these mutations affect the spread of disease in the population can have important implications for developing pandemic plans.
Although qualitatively similar results were obtained through a simple compartmental model [9], the integration of different stages of disease at the individual level and the likely delay in seeking healthcare and therefore initiating therapy, can have important consequences for developing pandemic plans [8].
The time taken to deploy a novel influenza vaccine may have a critical influence on the mortality of a developing pandemic, and the avoidance of use of eggs, live viruses and mammalian cell culture in the manufacture of DNA vaccines may provide greater surety of production and a more rapid response than more conventional influenza vaccine technologies.
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And knowing which mutations lead to transmissibility should help scientists all over the world who monitor bird flu to recognize if and when a circulating strain starts to develop pandemic potential.
In 2007, Indonesia triggered a crisis when it stopped sharing samples from people infected with the influenza strain H5N1, over concerns they would be used to develop pandemic vaccines that the country would not be able to afford.
Sharing of the virus stains is also critical to develop pandemic vaccines.
Concerns regarding the advent and impact of the next influenza pandemic have led >120 countries to develop pandemic preparedness plans (1 ).
In response to the emergency, the main influenza vaccine producers as well as new manufacturers from China, Thailand, India and South America developed pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccines using embryonated chicken eggs (egg technology).
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