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Mr. Bush has used more than $65 million on television since he began advertising in March, according to Republican and Democratic estimates.
Even by Democratic estimates, the Senate plan would still leave a deficit of $566 billion in 2023, while adding $5.2 trillion to the federal debt over the next decade.
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The FiveThirtyEight model included an explicit adjustment for registered voter polls, essentially adding to the Republican estimate (and subtracting from the Democratic estimate) for any poll that reported registered voters.
The house effects calculation shows how far the pollster was from actual results, on average, by comparing the margin of the poll (Republican estimate minus Democratic estimate) to the actual margin (Republican result minus Democratic result) and combining these figures for all the polls that the pollster conducted in that race.
But the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee estimates that participation among unmarried women will drop off significantly in the upcoming midterm, from 58percentturnoutut in 2012 to 39percentt in 2014.
Democratic lawmakers estimate that at least 1.5 million people have fallen behind on their mortgage payments.
Democratic officials estimated that the party would spend about $1.5 million to broadcast the ads on stations in the Philadelphia and New York markets.
Democratic consultants estimated much higher costs, suggesting that the brochures could have cost 75 cents to $1.50 apiece when factoring in postage and other things.
Kathy Hochul, a New York democratic congresswoman, estimated the standoff between the two parties caused "over $350m in damage to our economy".But the compromise does not truly resolve the funding issue.
Republicans viewed the address as a declaration of war, while one Democratic ally estimated Johnson's speech cost the party 200,000 votes in the 1866 congressional midterm elections.
A Democratic aide estimated the federal government has spent $112,624.88 on its share of Vitter's premiums since 1999, when he first entered Congress, assuming the feds have paid 75percentt of a standard HMO plan.
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